Sunday, January 21, 2007

In my pregame excitement I forgot to put a title on this.

Five things to watch for in tonight's game:
  • I'm not completely convinced that Indy's defense has undergone a transformation, but anyone who watched their two playoff games could see their pass rush was wreaking havoc. The Pats' O-line, which played so well last week, is in for a similar battle tonight:a noisy crowd and fast pass rushers coming off the edges looking to decapitate Brady. Despite their pass-rushing abilities, that is still a relatively small defensive line. I would be shocked if the Pats don't try to run the ball more this week than they did against SD, which leads us to...
  • Paging Laurence Maroney, Laurence Maroney to the backfield, please. A team can have the best game planning, strategy, and preparation in the league (which the Pats arguably do), but they still need to have weapons. They can't throw you, me, and Johnny from Burger King out there and expect to win, even with a perfect game plan. Maroney is one of the team's best weapons--a guy who can make big plays on his own even when the rest of the offense is stagnant. Maroney had five carries last week; I'd like to see him get 20 tonight.
  • The Pats don't have much choice but to beat the crap out of Indy's wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. It's a strategy that's worked well in the past, but as well as Asante is playing, it remains to be seen whether he and E-Hobbs can successfully play that sort of physical game. I'm not so worried about the physical part, I'm worried about them staying with Wayne and Harrison down the field. This will almost certainly be one of the keys to the game. If those guys keep getting open, the Pats are in trouble.
  • One of the Pats' significant advantages should be in the trenches, where they are bigger and more physical than the Dolts. The Pats must get a strong pass rush from their front three. It's considered by many to be the best defensive line in the game, and they need to play up to their rep in order to make The Walking Commercial uncomfortable. (If the league ever does decide to put ads on players jerseys, I expect Peyton's to be covered like a minor league stadium's outfield wall.)
  • What's the story with Indy's injury report? They have six guys listed as "questionable," including starting tackle Ryan Diem, starting guard Ryan Lilja, and four starters on defense: Rob Morris, Nicholas Harper, Cato June, and Bob Sanders. These aren't insignificant players; June and Sanders are probably their two best all-around defenders, and Sander's return from knee problems is generally considered the numero uno reason for the improved play of the team's D in the playoffs. Also mentioned on that list is the insertion of Morris into the starting lineup--he's strong against the run. I'm going to assume that none of these guys are actually going to miss the game (and the Colts have had a ridiculously long injury report for most of their games this season, perhaps in emulation of the Pats' similar tactics when dealing with injuries). But if these guys aren't at full strength, or if they are reinjured during the course of the game, that could play a factor.
Having said all of this, it wouldn't surprise me if the Pats do the exact opposite of what everyone (including myself) expects them to do. That is Belichick's MO, after all. It's one of the things that makes it so enjoyable to be a Pats fan today: the innovation, the strategy, the anticipation of the unexpected.
We all know Bill will have something up his gray sleeve, and I can't wait to see what it is.

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