Are You Ready for Some Baseball?!?

Although I would much prefer to actually be in Florida or Arizona, the words and pictures coming from baseball’s spring training camps do bring warmth to my heart, if not the rest of my body. Baseball is back, and that means it’s time to start analyzing, scrutinizing, and criticizing the transactions that occurred over the last few months. So over the next couple of weeks, we’ll take a division-by-division look at the off-seasons of every Major League team. We’ll begin with the AL Central, listed in order of last year’s standings. (All statistics are from the 2006 season unless otherwise noted; “minor” means minor league deal)

Minnesota Twins (2006: 96-66)

Incoming: IF Jeff Cirillo (FA from Brewers), P Ramon Ortiz (FA from Nationals), 1B Ken Harvey (minor), P Sidney Ponson (minor), P Mike Venafro (minor), P Randy Choate (minor)

Outgoing: OF Shannon Stewart (FA to A’s), P Brad Radke (retired)

Not coming, not going, just . . . sitting: P Francisco Liriano (bad arm)

In the works: Geez, they already signed Ramon Ortiz AND Sidney Ponson—what more do you want?

Analysis: I understand any discussion of the Twins has to begin with a disclosure of their limited financial resources, and they did sign phenom C Joe Mauer to a four-year extension, guaranteeing (barring a trade) he will be catching Johan Santana at least through 2008 (when Santana’s current contract expires). Mauer hit .347 last year—he was the first catcher ever to lead the Majors in batting—and Santana is better than God, so that’s a pretty solid foundation for the defending AL Central champs. Unfortunately, there are 23 other spots on a Major League roster, and the best the Twins could do in filling some of these spots was to sign the likes of Cirillo (huh?), Ortiz (eek!), and (gulp!) Ponson (blecch!). With Liriano out for the year following Tommy John surgery and Radke retired, this team is in serious need of a couple of reliable starters in the rotation. Perhaps if they didn’t play in a dome, they could pray for rain four days a week and hope Santana starts every game, but instead they may actually have to consider Two-Ton Sidney for a roster spot. And remember when Ortiz was known as “Little Pedro”? With a career ERA of 4.85 (and rising—probably at this very moment), “Little Matt Young” might be more appropriate.

The Twins have numerous highly-ranked prospects, led by P Matt Garza—although he struggled (3-6, 5.76) in nine late-season starts—and I like their lineup, which includes MVP Justin Morneau, Torii Hunter, and Mike Cuddyer, who you may be surprised to hear had 24 homers, 109 RBIs, and 102 runs last year. But with that rotation, it’s going to be difficult for the Twins to keep up with the Tigers, Chisox, and even the Indians in ’07.

Off-season grade: D-. O.k., Cirillo is a decent contact hitter who comes cheap, and . . . um . . . well, there’s the Mauer deal . . . but Minnesota didn’t exactly fire up the hot stove this winter, did they? Which is strange, ‘cause it’s really cold up there. . .

Detroit Tigers (95-67)

Incoming: OF Gary Sheffield (trade from Yankees), P Jose Mesa (FA from Rockies), OF Brandon Watson (FA from Reds), P Joey Eischen (minor), OF Timo Perez (minor)

Outgoing: OF Alexis Gomez (FA to Rockies), P Jamie Walker (FA to Orioles), 1B/DH Dmitri Young (FA to Orioles), P Troy Percival (retired)

In the works: DH Kelly Thames and P Mike Maroth have been rumored to be on the block. What they might be traded for is another question, considering the Tigers are the defending AL Champs and aren’t exactly filled with holes. A better 1B than Sean Casey would be nice, but don’t forget they have Chris “Mr. April” Shelton, who is only 26. The loss of Walker has created an opening for a left-handed relief specialist. Except Maroth himself is left-handed, and so is former Sox farmhand Wilfredo Ledezma, who was decent last year (3.58 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 60 IP). An even better—and funnier—rumor has Juan Gonzalez talking about a(nother) comeback. The Tigers have supposedly expressed interest, for some reason (although team officials denied it).

Analysis: Talk about filling in the puzzle piece. The Tigers had one primary need this winter: a big bat. They picked up one of the biggest (and most violent) in Sheffield without giving up anyone on their major league roster. The prospects they did give up have a bright future, particularly Humberto Sanchez, who could be the Yankees closer sooner rather than later. But the Tigers are a team built to win now, and Sheffield makes them the prohibitive favorites at this early point to defend their AL crown. At 37, Sheff is an injury risk following a 2006 season in which he missed all but 39 games with a bad wrist, but he averaged 154 games played in the previous three seasons, so it doesn’t appear his body is completely breaking down. Just as important and telling are some other averages over those seasons (2003-05): .304 BA, 36 HR, 125 RBI, 116 runs. This is added to a lineup including Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, Ivan Rodriguez, Placido Polanco, Craig Monroe et al. Sounds like a pitcher’s nightmare. . . .

The big question mark for this team is the closer’s role, which was filled by 38-year-old Todd Jones, who had only 28 strikeouts in 64 IP last year. There’s no way he gets 37 saves again this year, but Joel Zumaya—he of the 100-mph fastball—is set to take over if/when Jones falters, so maybe that’s not such a bad fallback plan. Fernando Rodney (7 saves) is another possibility. Or, if they just want to tank the season, there’s always Mesa.

Off-season grade: B+. There are some who think the Tigers should have avoided the roid-raging, fan-fighting Sheffield and signed a free agent instead, saving themselves some valuable prospects and many potential pains in the buttocks. These must be people who haven’t watched Sheffield much, ‘cause he’s the single most fearsome hitter I’ve seen over the last few years. I wish he had gone to the National League, but this is one Red Sox fan breathing a sigh of relief that he’s no longer on the Yankees. No one attacks a baseball like Sheff, and that intimidation factor will be good for a team that was pretty low-key and nonconfrontational last year. I see it as a worthwhile gamble for a team looking to win it all. They didn’t do much else, and they didn’t need to.

Chicago White Sox (90-72)

Incoming: 1B/OF Darin Erstad (FA from Angels), P David Aardsma (trade from Cubs), P Gavin Floyd (trade from Phillies), C Toby Hall (FA from Dodgers), P Andrew Sisco (trade from Royals), 1B Eduardo Perez (minor), 2B Junior Spivey (minor)

Outgoing: P Freddy Garcia (trade to Phillies), P Neal Cotts (trade to Cubs), 1B/OF Ross Gload (trade to Royals), P Brandon McCarthy (trade to Rangers), P David Riske (FA to Royals), C Sandy Alomar Jr. (FA to Mets/minor)

In the works: With starter Juan Uribe facing legal troubles related to an off-season shooting in the Dominican Republic and backup Alex Cintron coming off elbow surgery, shortstop is a position in a state of flux, at least at the moment. But Uribe is expected to join the Sox in spring training, and Cintron has said he will be ready for the start of the season, so nothing is imminent.

Analysis: I generally think of Sox General Manager Kenny Williams to be one of the better minds in the game—he deserves a lot of credit for putting together the team that won the World Series in 2005. But this off-season is difficult to evaluate. On the surface, getting rid of Garcia, Cotts, and McCarthy in exchange for Aardsma, Floyd, and some prospects doesn’t seem particularly sagacious. And Darin Erstad hasn’t been healthy for two years or good for three. In Williams’s defense, the two prospects acquired from the Rangers for McCarthy, John Danks and Nick Masset, are highly regarded. And Floyd has shown flashes of greatness (mostly in the minors) and comes much cheaper than Garcia. Aardsma is the first guy listed in the Baseball Encyclopedia. The question is: what is the point of all of these moves? Are the Chisox trying to win now or build for the future? Get younger or more experienced? Save money? It looks like Williams is trying to stockpile young arms, which is generally a good strategy, but many of the positional players on this team are at or over 30, and the most important young guy, center fielder Brian Anderson, was a bust last season. There are question marks at center, left, and shortstop. Of their three best hitters, one—Jermaine Dye—is a free agent after the season, and another—Jim Thome—is 35 years old.

I still like the Sox, and wouldn’t be shocked to see them win the Central this season, but I’m having trouble discerning exactly what all these moves mean. Best case scenario would include a comeback season from Erstad [he’s only 32; remember when he hit .355 (!!!) in 2000? Neither do I . . .) and the development of a bunch of young arms that could move onto the major league roster or become trade bait. It certainly creates a wait-and-see situation for Pale Hose fans.

Off-season grade: C. Some Chisox watchers think Williams has another move up his sleeve before or during the early portion of the season. Look for a deal for a shortstop or outfielder if the team starts slow.

Cleveland Indians (78-84)

Incoming: 2B Josh Barfield (trade from Padres), P Joe Borowski (FA from Marlins), OF Dave Dellucci (FA from Phillies), OF Trot Nixon (FA from Red Sox), P Aaron Fultz (FA from Phillies), P Roberto Hernandez (FA from Mets), P Cliff Politte (minor)

Outgoing: 3B Aaron “$%#%&$@#$” Boone (FA to Marlins), 3B/OF Kevin Kouzmanoff (trade to Padres), INF Lou “Where’s Nomar?” Merloni (FA to A’s/minor)

They hardly knew he: P Keith Foulke (FA from Red Sox/retired)

In the works: Foulke’s retirement leaves Borowski the de facto winner of the closer competition; while that could have been the final result anyway, this isn’t how the Tribe wanted him to win it. Despite 36 saves last year, Borowski looks like one of the shakiest closers in the league, and Cleveland may look to bring in some more competition.

Analysis: With all the talk of Matsuzaka, Soriano, and Zito, perhaps the most underrated player to switch teams is Josh Barfield. He’s got pop (13 HRs), speed (21 SBs), fielding skillz, and good bloodlines (his dad is former Toronto slugger Jesse Barfield), and he’s only 24 years old. In other words, he’s another young star-in-the-making to add to Cleveland’s positional talent: start with Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, and Grady Sizemore, each among the best players at their respective positions; the same could be said of Jhonny Peralta if anyone can figure out who kidnapped him and replaced him with the guy who wore his uniform in ’06; and there’s young corner infielders Ryan Garko (45 RBIs in 50 games!) and Andy Marte, who’s already been traded for Edgar Renteria and Coco Crisp. And what about the ultimate Dirt Dog? Soon to be 33 years old, and not having reached 135 games in a season since 2002, expectations should be low for the Trotster. But at $3 million for one year, I think this is a good signing for the Tribe. He still has patience at the plate, and although his power seems to be waning, I’m already having visions of a game-winning homer against the Sox at some point during the season. I also like Dellucci—another patient outfielder—but three years, $11.5 million seems steep for a 33-year old platoon player.

Off-season grade: B-. The lineup additions are nice, but the Tribe was done in last year by an atrocious bullpen (24th out of 30 MLB teams in ERA, dead last in saves). The loss of Foulke is a blow, because even if he didn’t close, he was expected to make a significant contribution. Meanwhile, Fultz has basically had one good season, Hernandez is applying for an AARP membership, and as I’ve discussed, Borowski can’t be trusted. If the bullpen falters again this season, the team’s hopes will go down the drain and right into Lake Erie. Where’s the Wild Thing when you need him?

Kansas City Royals (62-100)

Incoming: P Gil Meche (FA from Mariners), C Jason LaRue (trade from Reds), P Brian Bannister (trade from Mets), 1B/OF Ross Gload (trade from White Sox), P David Riske (FA from White Sox), P Octavio Dotel (FA from Yankees)

Outgoing: C Paul Bako (FA to Orioles), P Andrew Sisco (trade to White Sox), 1B Doug Mientkiewicz (FA to Yankees), P Ambiorix Burgos (trade to Mets), P Runelvys Hernandez (FA to Red Sox), P Scott Dohmann (FA to Devil Rays), INF Jeff Keppinger (trade to Reds)

In the works: Not much. With Mark Teahan moving from 3B to LF to make room for uber-prospect Alex Gordon, they have a surplus of mediocre corner outfielders (Gload, Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown, Shane Costa), but who’s going to want any of those guys?

Analysis: I’m trying to give the Royals the benefit of the doubt with the signing of Meche (11-8, 4.48 ERA) to a 5-year, $55 million contract ($1 million for each win of his career). I understand they had around $20 to spend this off-season. I recognize that the price of starting pitchers has gone through the roof. I even think Meche has some talent. But it just doesn’t make sense—not for the Royals. Meche isn’t going to significantly improve a team that lost 100 games last season. He’s not going to help them make the playoffs. He’s not going to put fans in the seats. For a team close to contention, a team in need of a solid 3rd or 4th starter, he would make a lot of sense, even at that price. But this team? It’s not constructive—it’s just throwing money around for the hell of it. Wouldn’t it make more sense to hold onto the cash and sign someone better next year? A fundamental problem with a team having money to spend is they think they absolutely have to spend it. The result is they’ve got to pay Gil Meche $55 million over the next five years, and if someone more attractive becomes available in the next couple of years, they might not be able to afford him. If the Royals are going to start consistently spending money, maybe this is one part of putting together a competitive team. But this team is so far away from being competitive, it just looks like another bad decision.

. . . and on top of that they give $5 million to Dotel. Again, for $1-2 million, it’s a worthwhile gamble. But $5 million for a guy with his injury history . . . why not convert one of their young pitchers into a closer instead of spending this much on a 33-year-old with a bad arm.

Off-season Grade: D+. Bannister is a young starter with some upside, and LaRue was one of the best hitting catchers in the Majors in 2005 (though he slumped horribly last year), so there are some (tiny) bright spots visible through the sea of clouds that linger over Kansas City during every baseball season. But a team with such a small payroll can’t afford to make many personnel mistakes. The A’s are an encouraging example to other small market teams that it is possible to be competitive on a budget. The Royals are the other side of the coin. There’s a reason they’ve lost 100 games each of the last three years, and four out of five. With these moves, it looks like they’re heading toward five out of six.